Potential winners, top candidates for soccer award as Salah, Mbappe lead favourites

As the most prestigious individual award in global football, the Ballon d’Or dominates the annual conversation throughout each season.

Handed out by France Football in the fall for the previous season from August to July, the Ballon d’Or is given to the best football player from around the globe across the campaign. A gala is held each year — with UEFA now involved in the organising — to crown the best male and female players and give out several other accolades.

Rodri’s win in 2024 was controversial, but his ACL tear early this season has left the 2025 contest wide open. Players who finished just behind the Manchester City star, such as Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham, are obvious choices for the conversation once again, but there are other challengers.

The Sporting News will update this page throughout 2025 as the candidates to win the award stake their claims.

Ballon d’Or rankings 2025: Potential winners, top candidates

Here are the top 10 players in contention for the Ballon d’Or, ranked by how The Sporting News would hand out the award if the season ended today.

Rankings and stats as of Wednesday, March 12, 2025.

10) Julian Alvarez (FW, Atletico Madrid)

Julian Alvarez’s first season at Atletico Madrid has not only put Diego Simeone’s side in position to contend for multiple trophies, but it’s also made Man City brass suffer immense regret in their decision to sell last summer.

The 25-year-old has been a perfect fit at Atletico, scoring 22 goals and assisting five more across all competitions even with the occasionally drab system he plays in. Alvarez has taken time to adjust to La Liga play, leading to some domestic inconsistencies, but he has been exceptional in the Champions League, scoring seven goals in nine games. The nature of his penalty mishap in the shootout defeat to Real Madrid was just cruel.

Not only does Alvarez put the ball in the net at a high rate, but he’s also an exceptional passer, and contributes heavily on the defensive end as well. A high work-rate player, Alvarez is very deserving of a place on this list, even if he hasn’t reached the level to truly compete for the award.

Julian Alvarez stats 2024/25

9) Vinicius Jr. (FW, Real Madrid)

As one of last year’s top contenders for this award — so much so that Real Madrid boycotted the ceremony to protest his second-place finish — it’s shocking to see Vinicius Jr. so low on this list. While the Brazilian remains one of the top players in the world, he has not been able to reprise the level of last season’s heroics.

He started extremely well, but an inconsistent second half of the season has ruined his overall production. A quirky few months bracketing the new year saw him miss a chunk of time due to injury and suspension, and he has just five goals across all competitions since the start of January.

Having to share the spotlight with Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Jr’s production has dropped overall, but he still continues to prove a dangerous presence on the wing, complementing Mbappe’s abilities. His missed penalty in the Champions League match against Atletico Madrid doesn’t help his case.

Vinicius Jr. stats 2024/25

8) Florian Wirtz (ACM, Bayer Leverkusen)

It was hard to imagine how Florian Wirtz could possibly improve on his sparkling 2023/24 campaign, but he’s done just that, solidifying himself as one of the most sought-after players in Europe this coming summer.

Still just 21 years old, Wirtz has scored 15 goals this season while also collecting 10.5 expected assists, which is more than Mohamed Salah and Ousmane Dembele who are both still to come on this list.

Along with the end product, Wirtz’s statistical profile absolutely explodes off the page, with Xabi Alonso leaning heavily on the budding superstar as a second striker operating behind Victor Boniface and Patrik Schick.

Wirtz had a real shot at a top-five spot in this list at the end of the season, but a few bad moments will haunt him and his club. His horror miss at the end of their 0-0 draw with Bayern Munich have left Bayer Leverkusen with a big deficit in the Bundesliga table, and he was invisible in the Champions League Round of 16 flop against Bayern as well (although he missed the return leg through injury).

Florian Wirtz stats 2024/25

7) Robert Lewandowski (CF, Barcelona)

At the end of the 2023/24 campaign, it appeared that at 35 years old, Robert Lewandowski was cooked. Nineteen goals and eight assists in La Liga was nothing to scoff at, but it’s not what Lewandowski was used to.

The Poland international saw his shots per 90 absolutely plummet from 4.25 in 2022/23 to 2.98 that season. He was simply not able to get himself in dangerous positions as often, and struggled to finish big chances with regularity when he did.

Fast forward to March 2025, and reports of Lewandowski’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. His shot totals have returned to near his old volume, and he’s finishing at a very strong rate. While some of this can be chalked up to Hansi Flick’s attacking style of play, Lewandowski’s ability to contribute in such a system cannot be denied.

Even with a cold spell through late 2024, Lewandowski has already soared past his goals tally from last season, and he remains a force not only in La Liga but in Europe as well. He’s having quite the redemption campaign, and has to be considered amongst the Ballon d’Or contenders, even if it’s tough for a true No. 9 to win the award over those with more creative abilities to complement their finishing.

Robert Lewandowski stats 2024/25

6) Harry Kane (CF, Bayern Munich)

Now 31 years old and still in search of his first career major trophy, Harry Kane has been sensational in his second season at Bayern Munich.

Kane is the ideal No. 9 for any coach, able to do a myriad of things at the head of the attack. He can score goals, obviously, with 21 in 23 league games plus another nine in Europe, but his hold-up play, counter-attack prowess, and penalty venom make Kane a versatile and dangerous striker.

While his pressing abilities are lacking, the presence of energetic wingers and midfielders at Bayern mask that lone hole in his skill set. Kane and Lewandowski have both scored 30 goals across domestic league and Champions League play, but Kane has done so with just 24.37 xG compared to the 30.26 xG of Lewandowski, indicating he’s profited the same from lower-value chances. Add in Kane’s nine assists to just two for Lewy, and you get a clear pecking order.

Harry Kane stats 2024/25

5) Jude Bellingham (MF, Real Madrid)

While the Real Madrid superstar does not have the flashy goals and assists tallies he collected in his first season in Spain, he’s been just as important in the club’s push for trophies on multiple fronts.

With the arrival of Kylian Mbappe, Bellingham has been shifted away from his glutton of attacking responsibilities into a more traditional 8/10 hybrid midfield role, and as expected he’s excelled. Bellingham ranks in the top five percentile of European midfielders in multiple passing categories, successful take-ons, progressive passes received, carries, and tackles, indicating his wide range of capabilities makes him an invaluable player.

His downturn in attacking production probably means he won’t win the Ballon d’Or, because at the end of the day attacking production reigns king, but even so, 11 goals and 11 assists is a wonderful haul given all the other things Bellingham excels at. There’s no debate — Jude Bellingham is the best midfielder in the world. There’s nothing he can’t do.

Jude Bellingham stats 2024/25

4) Ousmane Dembele (FW, Paris Saint-Germain)

One of the most under-the-radar performances this season across all of Europe has been the explosion of 27-year-old Ousmane Dembele with Paris Saint-Germain.

Say what you will about the competition level of Ligue 1, where Dembele has scored 20 goals and assisted five others (including 15 since December 15, scoring in nine of his last 10), but the France star has played at a superstar level in the Champions League as well.

While he (and the rest of PSG) struggled through the first half of the league phase, Dembele exploded as the calendar turned to 2025, scoring six goals across the final two league phase games plus the first knockout playoff match. While he finished the 90 minutes at home against Liverpool without profit, Dembele was the best player on the pitch, and only PSG’s utter catastrophe in front of goal kept him from contributing in any tangible way.

If PSG had gone out of Europe in the Round of 16, it would have completely destroy Dembele’s chances of winning this award, as a strong campaign in Ligue 1 is never enough in its current state. Yet now that they’ve knocked off Liverpool, the world is watching, and his stock can rise quickly if he continues to shine.

Ousmane Dembele stats 2024/25

3) Kylian Mbappe (FW, Real Madrid)

Kylian Mbappe’s first season at Real Madrid started slow, but even then the noise was blown out of proportion. Since the early sputters, Mbappe has exploded to life, overtaking the other Blancos stars as the undisputed leader of a Galactico-laden squad.

Given how much attention Mbappe’s lack of production through the first two to three months of 2024/25 garnered, it’s a minor miracle that he now stands at 28 goals and four assists for the season. While his creativity has dipped considerably, that is to be expected given he has taken over the central striker role at his new club.

It is easy to understand why Mbappe struggled early on — he naturally wanted to occupy places his teammates (namely, Vinicius Jr. and Rodrygo) were already in, and thus they clashed. Now, Mbappe and his fellow Madrid forwards have learned how each other moves, and have begun to compliment each other instead of get in the way.

Mbappe has 11 La Liga goals since the start of December, and six of his seven Champions League goals have come in that span as well. The occasional glaring miss continues to haunt the France superstar, but a strong final third of the 2024/25 season could easily put him well in the conversation for the Ballon d’Or, especially with the chance to shine in the summer with the potential for UEFA Nations League finals as well as the Club World Cup.

Kylian Mbappe stats 2024/25

2) Mohamed Salah (RW, Liverpool)

It seemed that nobody was close to Mohamed Salah in the Ballon d’Or race… and then Liverpool crashed out of the Champions League in the Round of 16.

Not only that, but Salah was invisible across both legs against PSG, both in Paris and at Anfield, as he was pocketed by Nuno Mendes across the 180 minutes.

Salah has undoubtedly had an unbelievable, world-class season. The Egypt international has an outlandish 54 goal contributions this season, split across 32 goals and 22 assists. His best goal-scoring work has been done in the Premier League, where he has 27 goals in 29 matches, including braces against Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United plus big goals against Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, and Manchester United twice.

Yet there’s two problems with Salah’s candidacy as it now stands. First, he was too quiet in the Champions League, which draws the most eyeballs and tends to sway voters heavily.

Second, he won’t have any big international or club opportunities during the summer to add to his resume. African international football is pausing through the late summer months, and Liverpool are not participating in the 2025 Club World Cup. This means other players could use international competition to make a late play for the award, and Salah will have to lean on his club accomplishments and hope nobody else plays hero on an international level.

That’s why the Champions League flop hurts him even more than it normally would. At this point, it feels like his Ballon d’Or candidacy is on life support, even if he clobbers opponents across the rest of the Premier League season.

Mohamed Salah stats 2024/25

1) Raphinha (FW, Barcelona)

Alongside Ousmane Dembele, Raphinha has been probably the most unheralded performer in global football this season. Even on his own team, Robert Lewandowski and Lamine Yamal seem to hog the spotlight ahead of Raphinha, but nobody’s been better than the Brazilian, and it’s not remotely close.

Raphinha has been a heavily productive and consistent player since joining Barcelona, but he’s found a new gear under Hansi Flick. While his 13 goals and nine assists in La Liga play have been vital to help Barcelona top a crowded title race, it’s been his nine goals and four assists in the Champions League which headline his Ballon d’Or resume.

A hat-trick against Bayern Munich is the flashiest of the lot, but he also has three goals in two games against Benfica, including the critical winner in the first leg of their Round of 16 matchup, plus another goal against Borussia Dortmund and two assists against Atalanta.

While Mo Salah has racked up an insane assist total (21 compared to Raphinha’s 11) alongside his glutton of goals, it’s actually Raphinha who has tallied more chances created and expected assists (xA) than Salah, indicating that the exquisite finishing of Liverpool’s other attackers have played a role in that disparity. Do not discount how vital Raphinha is to Barcelona, who are well in contention for a number of major trophies this season.

With Salah’s Liverpool crashing out of the Champions League on the same day Raphinha skewered Benfica, the trophy now suddenly seems to be his to lose.

Raphinha stats 2024/25

Honorable Mention:

Selecting just 10 players to consider for the Ballon d’Or leaves out a number of deserving individuals who may not have a realistic shot at claiming the award but still deserve mention for their outstanding campaigns.

After winning the 2023/24 Kopa Trophy as the world’s best young player, Lamine Yamal looked to have picked up where he left off in 2024/25. He scored five goals and assisted seven more in his first 12 La Liga matches of the year, and had two goal contributions in Barcelona’s first three Champions League game as well.

Unfortunately, an ankle injury disrupted the middle of his season, and he has struggled to come back at full strength. While Raphinha cooks on the opposite wing, the 17-year-old has taken a back seat. You can still consider the Barcelona star a shoo-in for not just this season’s Kopa Trophy, but likely the next few as well. He’s a bona fide star.

Another attacker who could still possibly break into the list is Michael Olise, who has taken the next step in his career at Bayern Munich. Olise has scored 13 goals this season while also leading Europe’s top 50 goal scorers in expected assists with 12.34 xA across league and UCL play. Ademola Lookman and Jamal Musiala have also been amazing, but Atalanta’s exit from the Champions League is likely to end his run at the award.

Understandably, it is very difficult for defenders and midfielders to enter the upper echelon of this list, and The Sporting News does not currently have any ranked. Yet a nod must be given to Virgil van Dijk of Liverpool who has enjoyed an absolutely outstanding campaign at the back for the Reds, even as Liverpool crashed out of the Champions League thanks to a lack of attacking flair.

Another defensive player who has been exceptional is Gabriel of Arsenal, having proven himself not only a defensive wizard but also a strong threat in the air on set pieces in the attacking third.

In midfield, Rodri‘s injury has opened the door for others to be involved in the conversation. Creative midfielders like Dominik Szoboszlai and Bruno Fernandes have had exceptional seasons, while the defensive midfield player pool has few individuals deserving of mention. Federico Valverde also deserves mention for his incredible season at multiple positions, but his performances have largely gone unheralded from a global perspective.