Liverpool’s path to the Champions League final has just become a little clearer – and the Reds could be handed a nightmare scenario in the knockout stages.
The Reds are of course through to the last-16 in Europe, and have avoided the extra play-off round over the last seven days. And while preparations continue for tomorrow’s Premier League game at Aston Villa, Arne Slot and his players may have had an eye on tonight’s fixtures across the continent.
The play-off round comes to an end this week, with four teams booking their place in the last-16 on Tuesday, while another four will join them on Wednesday. In among those teams progressing are Liverpool’s next opponents, with the draw being made for the next round on Friday.
We can already see though how a potential path to the final in Munich could look for the Reds, with the picture becoming clearer.
How the Champions League draw works
With the extra play-off round coming to an end this week, the next stage will be the last-16. That’s where Liverpool come back into the competition.
The Reds of course managed to avoid the play-offs after finishing top of the league phase, having won seven of their opening eight games. They were joined in the next phase by Barcelona, Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Lille and Aston Villa.
And after Tuesday’s games, Feyenoord, Club Brugge, Bayern Munich and Benfica have now booked their places in the last-16, with AC Milan, Atalanta, Celtic and Monaco going out of the competition. On Wednesday, four of Borussia Dortmund, Sporting CP, PSG, Brest, PSV, Juventus, Real Madrid and Manchester City will take the last remaining spots.
Although there is a draw taking place on Friday, the rest of competition is already somewhat pre-determined. Having finished top of the league phase, Liverpool is guaranteed to face one of Benfica, PSG or Brest in the next round.
Friday will determine what side of the draw Liverpool is placed on, with the Reds and Barcelona being kept apart until at least the final after taking the top two spots in the league phase. What side of the draw they land in will then make their path to the final clear.
Who can Liverpool face in the knockout stages?
Well, the dream scenario for Liverpool in the last-16 would be facing Brest. With PSG holding a 3-0 lead in that tie and playing at home in the second leg though, that is looking extremely unlikely.
Therefore, the Reds would probably prefer to face Benfica in the next round. Should they overcome that challenge, then there are still five possible opponents for them in the quarter-finals.
Depending on what side of the draw they land on, Liverpool would face one of Lille or Aston Villa, Club Brugge, or the winner of Wednesday’s tie between Borussia Dortmund or Sporting CP. Dortmund holds a 3-0 lead in that match-up, and so looks very likely to progress.
Reaching the semi-finals brings the possibility of meeting one of Bayer Leverkusen or Atletico Madrid, Inter Milan or Arsenal, Feyenoord, Bayern Munich, and either the winner of Real Madrid vs Manchester City or Juventus vs PSV. The final would then pit the Reds against whoever makes it through the other half of the draw.
Therefore a dream path to the final for Liverpool would look something like Benfica, Lille and Feyenoord. Given the way the draw is laid out, that would appear to be the “easiest” route that is actually possible. A run of Brest, Club Brugge and PSV Eindhoven is still possible at the moment, although it would be a major shock if Brest managed to turn things around against PSG.
The nightmare scenario though could see the Reds come up against PSG in the last-16, Aston Villa in the quarter-finals, and one of Real Madrid, Manchester City, Arsenal, Inter or Atletico Madrid in the semi-finals. All of those fixtures are possible in the top half of the draw, which means the bottom half might be the better option.