Pep Guardiola’s side might be experiencing their worst season in 15 years, but Los Merengues are also looking vulnerable ahead of the play-off tie
For Manchester City, Champions League ties in February usually serve as an appetizers for the heartier main courses to come further down the line. This time last year, Pep Guardiola’s side were preparing to visit Copenhagen for the first leg of a last-16 tie which they would eventually win 6-2 on aggregate. The year before it was RB Leipzig, who they ended up routing 7-0 in the second leg. In February 2022, City travelled to Sporting CP and ran out 5-0 winners in the first leg, allowing Guardiola to field a second string side for the return leg.
But things are a little different this year, as City have to face none other than Real Madrid after only just sneaking into the play-offs of the rebooted competition following a dreadful League Phase campaign in which they won just three out of eight matches to finish 22nd out of 36 teams.
It is the fourth season in a row in which City will have met Madrid in the knockout stages, and the fifth time in six seasons. City knocked Madrid out in 2019-20 and 2022-23, but succumbed to Los Blancos in last season’s quarter-finals following a penalty shootout having also lost in the dramatic semi-final tie in 2021-22. The year before Guardiola took charge of City, with Manuel Pellegrini in the dugout, they were beaten in the semi-finals.
City fans must be sick of the sight of Madrid, and they were probably the last team they wanted to face at this stage, especially given Guardiola’s side are still muddling their way through a harrowing campaign. They were thrashed 5-1 by Arsenal less than two weeks ago, and on Saturday survived an almighty scare in the FA Cup against third-tier Leyton Orient.
But Madrid have problems of their own, and City’s recent history offers many reasons for those of a blue persuasion to be quietly optimistic of knocking out the 15-times winners. That was certainly how Ruben Dias saw it when told the pre-match press conference: “Since I’ve been here, this has been the most difficult season so far. But I’m a firm believer that even in the most difficult scenario, most difficult beginning, you can still do something and achieve something beautiful in the end.”
GOAL outlines six reasons why City should have no fear at all of facing Madrid…
Madrid have no defence
City have had their fair share of defensive injury problems this season, but their issues are nothing compared to Madrid, whose back-line has been repeatedly crippled by long absences. Antonio Rudiger, arguably Madrid’s most crucial player in last season’s quarter-final tie with City, will miss the first leg and most likely the second with a hamstring injury, while Eder Militao’s campaign came to a brutal end in November when he suffered a second cruciate ligament tear in as many years. David Alaba, meanwhile, only returned to action in January following more than a year out following knee surgery, only to then hurt his adductor at the start of this month.
It means Madrid head to Manchester with just one natural centre-back in Raul Asencio, who only made his first-team debut in November. He might be loved by Madridistas for his tendency to get in the faces of the opposition, but the 21-year-old is still a raw and inexperienced player who has been thrown in at the deep end due to the team’s deep fitness issues. He is set to partner defensive midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni at the heart of the defence.
Madrid are also depleted at full-back, having lost Dani Carvajal early in the season to a serious knee injury before the ever-dependable Lucas Vazquez limped out of Saturday’s derby draw with Atletico Madrid due to a hamstring issue.
Vinicius has gone off the boil
There was a moment in the Real’s 1-1 draw with Atletico when Vinicius Jr picked up the ball in the middle of the pitch and lifted the Bernabeu crowd off their feet as he went straight for goal, only to send the ball skidding wide of the near post. It encapsulated a frustrating recent period for the Brazilian, who has gone off the boil lately while Kylian Mbappe has come to the fore for Carlo Ancelotti’s side.
Vinicius has failed to score in eight of his last 10 appearances in all competitions and has not found the net in La Liga since November. The Brazilian hit top form just after he missed out on the Ballon d’Or to Rodri in October, banging in hat-tricks against Osasuna and Borussia Dortmund amid a crazy run of 10 goals in eight matches, but his flow was disrupted by a muscle injury in late November and again when he was sent off against Valencia in January, for which he was suspended for two games.
The uncertainty around Vinicius’ Real Madrid future amid a hugely tempting offer from Saudi Arabia has only added to the intrigue around the Brazilian, who has dramatically fallen from being the club’s talisman last season to playing second fiddle to Mbappe, who has scored nine times in his last eight matches.
Bottling big games too
City have really struggled against the top sides this season, having been outclassed by Arsenal and Liverpool in the Premier League, while they even lost to the basket case that is Manchester United. They have also been beaten by European giants Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain.
But they can take solace in the fact that Madrid have not fared much better in their crunch fixtures. Ancelotti’s side were destroyed 4-0 by Barcelona at Santiago Bernabeu and humiliated again by the Catalans in the Supercopa final in Saudi Arabia. They have drawn both matches with Atletico Madrid in La Liga and lost to the excellent Athletic Club.
The team that Pep Guardiola rightly refers to as “the kings of the competition” have also struggled to live up to their status in the Champions League. They lost 3-1 at home to AC Milan and were well beaten by Liverpool at Anfield, and it was only thanks to hammering minnows such as Brest and Red Bull Salzburg that they were able to make amends for their woeful start to the League Phase and qualify for the play-offs.
New signings have something to prove
City used the January transfer window for some classic retail therapy, attempting to fix their problems by spending more money than every other Premier League club combined. And there can be no doubts that Guardiola now has a much stronger and varied squad as a result of signing Omar Marmoush, Abdukodir Khusanov, Vitor Reis and Nico Gonzalez for a combined £180million ($223m).
The new arrivals were ineligible for the final two League Phase matches, but are free to make their Champions League bows for City. Marmoush will be looking to make his mark in Europe’s top competition for the first time after contributing to 30 goals in the first half of the season with Eintracht Frankfurt, with only compatriot Mohamed Salah getting more goals or assists than him across Europe’s top five leagues. He has had a frustrating start to life with City, but it is surely only a matter of time before he begins firing for Guardiola’s side.
Nico, City’s latest arrival, will also be relishing the prospect of facing Real Madrid and returning to the Champions League after dropping down to the Europa League with Porto this season. The Spaniard was given a tough introduction to English football when he was forced off injured against Leyton Orient in Saturday’s FA Cup tie, but he is back in training already and his athleticism and passing ability will be key to prevent City getting overwhelmed in midfield.
Khusanov’s confidence, meanwhile, will be much-improved following his nightmare first game against Chelsea after his impactful appearance off the bench in east London, as he scored and made a crucial tackle in the FA Cup turnaround.
Haaland refreshed and fired-up
Haaland was humiliated at the Emirates Stadium last week as young Arsenal upstart Myles Lewis-Skelly mocked his celebration, but he has had more than a week to reflect and fire himself up for the stage he loves the most: the Champions League knockouts. While his team-mates toiled in east London against League One opposition, Haaland was given the weekend off to rest his legs and sharpen his mind for the biggest game of the season.
Haaland has a lot to prove in this tie. He has not scored in any of his four previous meetings against Real Madrid – the club he turned down to move to City in 2022 – and he knows more than anyone that he needs to improve his goal record in matches like this. But Hell hath no fury like a Haaland scorned, and after having more than a week to ruminate on what happened in north London, he will be relishing the chance to prove his doubters wrong, especially against Madrid’s makeshift defence.
Dias said: “Just like all of us Erling wants to be in this competition and win it and so I’m sure he’ll be hungry enough to be there and perform.”
Guardiola knows how to beat Madrid
Real Madrid might have given him nightmares on several occasions, but Guardiola’s record against Los Blancos remains highly impressive. He has faced them 25 times as a manager and won more than half, with 13 victories, six draws and six defeats. The Catalan has overseen some of Madrid’s most harrowing nights, master-minding Barcelona’s 6-2 and 5-0 victories in La Liga as well as edging out the infamous Champions League semi-final tie in 2011.
As City boss, he has won four, drawn three and only lost once against Madrid (the defeat at the Bernabeu in the 2022 semi-finals). “When we lost in the last few minutes at the Bernabeu, they were the favourites and then we beat them 4-0,” Guardiola said ahead of Tuesday’s first leg. “At the end of the day they are a huge competitor. We know it. We have faced many times with them and we know how in the tough moments they bring out the best of themselves.”
There are two added motivations for Guardiola. He has made it to the last 16 of the Champions League in each of his 15 seasons as a manager, so he will be desperate to avoid his earliest-ever elimination from the competition. And then there’s the fact that he has won Europe’s biggest prize three times, two fewer than record-holder Ancelotti.